Welcome Back, Econ Data: What Changed This Week

Nov 24

Equities: Dow -903pts/-1.91% (YTD: +8.70%); S&P -131pts/-1.99% (YTD: +12.26%); Nasdaq -628pts/-2.74% (YTD: +15.34%). Markets rebounded 1% on Friday.
Risk: BTC declined to $84k (-$12k on week); High Yield OAS topped 300bps for the first time since June; VIX spiked.
Treasury Rates: Bull steepening. 2-year at 3.50% (-10bps on week), 10-year at 4.06% (-9bps), 30-year at 4.91% (-4bps). Municipal IG market ignored all of it, rates unchanged, and issued another $15B.
Welcome Back, Economic Data: Available data shows deceleration of employment and econ activity, with four rate cuts priced in over the next 12 months.

Issuance: New record highs continue to be set daily. Year-to-date volume reached $560B across 8,900+ transactions. At Riverbend, there’s something for everyone and a lot for nobody.
Credit Performance: YTD IG returns (1-30 years) at 4% across all ratings (AAA-BBB); high yield lagging at 2.6%.
Strategy: Selective credit differentiation remains essential in the current environment.
NYC Credit Update: Spreads widened as anticipated, now +50bps versus generic AAA. We like what’s been dragged wide through the move (like NYC Water Revenue).
End of Year Outlook: Six weeks of deals left and counting! Much to discuss, with $40B+ reinvestment expected next month and exciting yield, credit, and curve action.

Enjoy the holiday, but don’t miss your piece of the pie… we’ll be in all week to discuss our outlook on the remainder of 2025.

Strategy + Spectacle

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